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Hurricane Season 2010: Tracking Less Intense Storms

Meteorologists Foresee Decrease in Intensity and Frequency of Atlantic Hurricanes as Wind Shear Increases

June 1, 2010

Meteorologists found that climate change could cause an increase in Atlantic wind shear, potentially reducing the intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes by interfering with the circulation of a storm. Wind shear is defined as a change in wind velocity, and a vertical wind shear has the potential to dismantle a developing storm.

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ABOUT HURRICANES: A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, a low-pressure system that usually forms in the tropics with winds that circulate counterclockwise near the earth's surface. Storms are considered hurricanes when their wind speeds surpass 74 MPH. Every hurricane arises from the combination of warm water and moist warm air. Tropical thunderstorms drift out over warm ocean waters and encounter winds from near the equator. Warm, moist air from the ocean surface rises rapidly, encounters cooler air, and condenses into water vapor to form storm clouds, releasing heat in the process. This heat causes the condensation process to continue, so that more and more warm moist air is drawn into the developing storm, creating a wind pattern that spirals around the relatively calm center, or eye, of the storm, much like water swirling down a drain. The winds keep circling and accelerating to form a classic cyclone pattern.

WHAT IS WIND SHEAR? It is the difference in wind speed and direction over a short distance. A vertical wind shear occurs when wind speeds and directions vary with altitude. It can literally tear storms apart. This has typically been associated with reduced hurricane formation and intensity. If wind shear increases in the coming decades, it may counter the effect of global warming, which has been projected to create conditions likely to increase hurricane intensity.

The American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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More information on this story

Wind Shear and Hurricanes

To Go Inside This Science:
Brian J. Soden
305 421-4202
bsoden@rsmas.miami.edu

American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
617-227-2425

Peter Weiss
American Geophysical Union
Washington, DC 20009-1277
pweiss@agu.org
202-777-7507


© 2010 American Institute of Physics